Bitcoin
Fed votes 9-3 to hold rates; Coldcard hack drains $70M as crypto absorbs week of shocks
Bitcoin fell 2% despite a rare FOMC split and a record hardware wallet breach, signalling markets may have already priced in substantial negative news.
The week of 27 July to 2 August brought multiple catalysts to crypto markets: a hawkish Federal Reserve decision, a record hardware wallet attack, an ETF redemption wave and legislative gridlock. Bitcoin closed the week down roughly 2% at $63,153, a muted reaction that suggests prior discounting of bad news.
On 29 July the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, but delivered a hawkish signal. Three regional presidents—Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas—dissented in favour of a 25 basis point hike, marking the sharpest FOMC split since September 2016. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the message at the press conference, stating there would be no soft inflation target on the committee's watch.
Market pricing shifted immediately. CME FedWatch now assigns 61.4 percent probability to a September hike, up from 50.6 percent a month earlier. Prediction markets are aligned: Kalshi prices a hike at 53 percent and Polymarket at 52 percent. The implications are direct—a tightening cycle implies higher real yields, a firmer dollar and reduced appetite for long-duration risk.
On 30 July, an attacker drained 1,082.65 BTC worth approximately $70.2 million from 1,196 addresses in 41 minutes. Galaxy Research attributed the breach to a firmware flaw in Coldcard, the Bitcoin-only hardware wallet made by Canadian firm Coinkite, marking the largest hardware wallet failure in Bitcoin's history.
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