Bitcoin's latest surge liquidates billions in bearish bets, analysts eye sustainability

Bitcoin reached its highest price since June on Thursday after gaining nearly 15% since Monday, with more than $3 billion in crypto short positions liquidated—the largest such event since at least 2021. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $517 million on Wednesday, their largest single-day inflow since May.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, attributed the rally to US Treasury bond-buying operations and statements from President Donald Trump suggesting the government could purchase Bitcoin. However, he cautioned that sustainability depends on continued spot demand. "The rally may be sustainable if spot demand growth continues after the initial impact of these macro events," Moreno told Decrypt, adding that a technical pullback remains possible given Bitcoin is still in a bear market overall. He flagged Bitcoin's 365-day moving average at around $83,000 as a level to watch, along with CryptoQuant's profit-and-loss index and bull score, neither of which has yet turned bullish.

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard noted that Bitcoin's technical picture has improved since reclaiming its 200-day simple moving average near $69,000. The asset sits about 8% above its 20- and 50-day moving averages, and its MACD momentum indicator has turned bullish. However, Sondergaard warned that much of the recent move was driven by forced covering of short positions rather than fresh buying, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable once the squeeze exhausts itself. He identified the recent high near $72,824 as immediate resistance, while a close below the 200-day SMA would signal a failed breakout.