Bitcoin ETFs Attract $854M Inflows as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Retreat

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $853.5 million across five consecutive trading sessions last week, reversing a $61.5 million outflow from the prior week. BlackRock's IBIT led the movement, capturing roughly $690 million or 80% of the week's total. On Friday alone, IBIT drew $86.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC received $41 million, while Invesco's BTCO shed $19.4 million. The funds collectively held $79.5 billion, equivalent to 6.1% of Bitcoin's market capitalization at week's end.

Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, attributed the flows to institutional repositioning following a pullback in AI-related equities and weakening U.S. employment data. Jobless claims revealed a loss of 23,000 positions in July against forecasts for 95,000 gains, while CME FedWatch odds of a September rate increase fell to 40% from 55% on Friday. Sun suggested the inflows likely reflect both portfolio rebalancing and basis trading activity, with $60,000 to $61,000 serving as key support levels.

Sun cautioned against interpreting the week as evidence of a sustained reversal, noting that rate-hike probabilities remained meaningful and long-dated Treasury yields stayed elevated. The inflows are "not enough to support a trend reversal," he said. CoinShares offered a more constructive view, with head of research James Butterfill suggesting cycle lows may have passed, though he expected two to three months of range-bound trading rather than an immediate rally. Butterfill cited three consecutive weeks of whale accumulation, alongside $1.05 billion in weekly inflows to digital asset investment products globally, as supporting evidence. He projected potential movement toward $80,000 over the medium term.