Bitwise Strategist Forecasts Bitcoin Resilience Across Artificial Intelligence Scenarios

In a note to clients, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan outlined three potential macroeconomic paths for the United States economy tied to artificial intelligence, asserting that Bitcoin would ultimately finish higher under each outcome. The assessment arrives as the four leading U.S. hyperscalers committed nearly $400 billion in capital expenditure during 2025, largely financed through private debt vehicles outside standard banking capital rules.

In a scenario where the AI boom collapses, Hougan outlines a credit crisis starting with data center defaults and pressure on insurers holding AI-backed debt, triggering a recession comparable to 2008. Under this view, he assigns a near 100% probability to a government bailout given AI's geopolitical importance. While Bitcoin would likely suffer an initial plunge, Hougan claims the subsequent liquidity injection and expansion of the money supply would fuel a sharp recovery.

Conversely, in an alternate scenario where AI creates widespread automated abundance, Hougan argues that absolute scarcity will gain value, benefiting assets with fixed supplies such as gold and Bitcoin's capped 21 million units. He acknowledged several potential blind spots to his thesis, including quantum computing risks and the possibility of Western governments returning to fiscal austerity.