Bitcoin Trapped Below Key Averages Despite Softer Jobs Data

U.S. employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, marking the first net loss since the pandemic-era recovery and falling sharply short of the 95,000 gain economists expected. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, but only because workers exited the labor force. June's gain was revised downward to 20,000 from 57,000, and May was nearly halved. Markets interpreted the weaker data as reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, with odds falling to 40% from 55% the previous day. Treasury yields declined, the dollar dropped 0.5%, and softer monetary policy typically supports risk assets and crypto.

However, Bitcoin's technical picture tells a different story. Trading at $64,938, up 1.06% for the session, the asset remains compressed below its two critical moving averages. Bitcoin peaked near $80,000 in mid-May before sliding to approximately $58,000 in July during a clean downtrend. The 50-day exponential moving average sits below the 200-day EMA—a formation called a death cross that signals continued downward momentum. Since the July low, price action has flattened into a sideways coil, but Bitcoin has failed to push back above either average throughout this consolidation.

The Relative Strength Index reads 54.6, indicating neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold, and lacking the directional pressure needed to break out. The bull case would require a daily close above the 50-day EMA and the $66,000 whole-number resistance level, potentially opening a run toward the 200-day EMA at $64,000 and the cloud top near $72,000. A softer Fed and weaker dollar provide fundamental support for such a move, but Bitcoin's failure to reclaim the 50-day line during the entire consolidation period weakens this scenario. The bear case remains intact: a break below $60,000 (the cloud floor and a round-number level) would confirm bearish control and potentially point back to the July low of $58,000, reopening the spring downtrend.