Arthur Hayes sees Bitcoin reaching $126,000 by end of 2026

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has outlined a scenario where Bitcoin reaches $126,000 by the end of 2026, grounding his thesis in macroeconomic factors rather than cryptocurrency sentiment.

Hayes points to the U.S. debt burden—approximately $40 trillion and rising—as creating structural pressure on markets. He argues that persistently high interest rates could strain Treasury markets, prompting policymakers to inject additional liquidity into the system. Recent increases in Treasury buybacks, according to Hayes, signal official willingness to intervene if yields climb too sharply.

He is monitoring the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo facility, which could become a significant source of dollar liquidity if expanded. Foreign governments holding large Treasury positions, such as Japan, may eventually need capital access without forced asset sales. By providing dollars against Treasury holdings through this facility, the Fed could unleash fresh liquidity that benefits risk assets including Bitcoin.

Hayes acknowledges a downside scenario where Bitcoin crashes to $35,000 due to forced selling or liquidation events. Rather than signaling a prolonged bear market, he suggests such a move could resemble the capitulation event of March 2020, potentially becoming a buying opportunity if policymakers respond with liquidity.

Conversely, if liquidity expands while Bitcoin is already rallying, Hayes expects momentum to accelerate as investors remain underallocated. In this case, movement toward $120,000 could develop into a substantially larger advance.