Bitcoin
Willy Woo Suggests Bitcoin May Shift to a Traditional 6-to-8-Year Debt Cycle
Analyst Willy Woo argues diminishing halving supply shocks and institutional adoption could tie Bitcoin to multi-year macroeconomic credit cycles.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo stated in a post on X that Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle could be ending, replaced instead by traditional finance's six-to-eight-year debt cycle. The observation comes as Bitcoin trades near $78,011, having rebounded in August after declining from its October 2025 peak of $126,198.
Historically, halving events reduced new supply and reset the four-year cycle, but Woo contends the relative impact of these supply shocks has diminished. Annual issuance dropped to around 0.8% of supply following the April 2024 halving and will decline to roughly 0.4% in 2028. By comparison, World Gold Council data showed gold supply grew by approximately 1.7% in 2025. Fidelity Digital Assets highlighted similar trends in February, noting falling volatility alongside record price highs as the asset matures, supported by spot exchange-traded funds.
Woo's proposed six-to-eight-year framework aligns with Ray Dalio's model of demand-driven credit cycles, where central bank interest rate cuts spur borrowing and growth until inflation triggers tightening and eventual recession. National Bureau of Economic Research data places the average post-war U.S. cycle at roughly 75 months, placing Woo's projection at the higher end of historical norms.
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