Bitcoin long-term holders begin selling after record accumulation

Bitcoin's long-term holders have begun changing their behaviour after accumulating to levels approaching 16 million BTC. Long-term holder supply recently turned lower after reaching toward that threshold, whilst short-term holder supply remained comparatively subdued.

This pattern mirrors previous cycles where experienced investors sell portions of their holdings during price rallies. However, this cycle has unfolded differently, with the first major price run-up lasting about 31 months compared to 8, 17, and 16 months in prior cycles. Continued ETF inflows, institutional participation, and sustained whale accumulation likely delayed the redistribution phase that typically follows accumulation periods.

The Long-Term Holder to Short-Term Holder SOPR Ratio has also fallen close to 1, a level historically associated with the 2015, 2019, and 2022 market bottoms when capitulation gradually transitioned into renewed accumulation. This convergence suggests fewer speculative positions remain in the market, and Bitcoin may be approaching a region where the cycle traditionally shifts toward the next stage.

Market sentiment has not yet caught up with these improving on-chain signals. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 27, indicating fear, whilst long-term holders maintain near-record holdings around 16 million BTC and the MVRV ratio compresses toward 1.21 to 1.22. Historically, caution often persists whilst fundamentals quietly strengthen, a divergence the article notes as noteworthy rather than contradictory. The convergence of multiple indicators strengthens the case for an approaching market bottom, though no single metric can confirm such a turning point.