Bitcoin
JPMorgan Models Project Bitcoin Outperforming Gold on Volatility-Adjusted Basis
Analysts at JPMorgan argue that Bitcoin presents better long-term value relative to gold when accounting for comparative volatility levels.
Strategists at JPMorgan, led by chief global market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, have shifted their stance to project that Bitcoin could outperform gold over the coming months. The bank evaluates the two assets using a volatility-adjusted framework, concluding that gold appears comparatively expensive relative to Bitcoin at equivalent risk levels.
The model assumes a volatility ratio converging toward two, meaning one dollar of Bitcoin equates to the risk of two dollars in gold. Applying this coefficient to investment-grade gold holdings yielded a theoretical Bitcoin value of $126,000 in summer 2025, which revised upward to approximately $170,000 over a six-to-twelve-month horizon in a November note, spurred in part by gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce.
The report highlights a substantial market cap asymmetry, with global gold supply exceeding $25 trillion while Bitcoin remains under 10% of that figure. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has begun accepting Bitcoin ETFs as collateral and deployed its JPMD deposit token on Base.
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