Bitcoin
Rising US Treasury Yields Threaten Macro Environment Untested by Bitcoin
Market strategists anticipate US Treasury yields could climb toward 6%, creating a macroeconomic landscape that Bitcoin has never navigated in its history.
Market strategist Rick Bensignor, founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies, stated on CNBC that the US 10-year Treasury yield could rise from current levels near 4.78% toward 6.07%, with 5.6% serving as a baseline target. The 10-year Treasury yield has not reached the 6% threshold since April 2000, roughly eight years before Satoshi Nakamoto released the Bitcoin white paper.
Bensignor cited technical indicators, including a multi-year uptrend and a 200-week moving average, to argue that investors are underestimating potential rate increases. Historically, the benchmark yield ranged from 40 basis points at its all-time low to 15.8% in the early 1980s.
Higher yields traditionally attract capital toward safe, income-bearing debt instruments and away from speculative risk assets. This dynamic introduces friction for Bitcoin's debt-debasement thesis: while US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, Bitcoin trades near $80,138, down approximately 37% from its peak. Analysts note that persistent yield increases could test whether Bitcoin trades primarily as a store of value or as a rate-sensitive risk asset.
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