US Treasuries Mark Historic Losses as Yields Compete With Bitcoin

Long-dated United States government bonds have recorded negative nominal returns over the past decade, losing approximately 2% annually through August 2026, according to Bank of America data. Taking inflation into account, the rolling 10-year annualized return stood at -5.14% as of July 2026. Historical figures compiled by Santa Clara University professor Edward McQuarrie show that across 2,771 monthly readings dating back to 1793, negative 10-year returns have appeared only 25 times, with Bianco Research noting that 24 of those occurrences belong to the current cycle.

The poor performance stems from low initial yields that were subsequently overtaken by Federal Reserve rate hikes and rising inflation. In 2016, the 30-year Treasury yielded 2.32%, leaving bondholders exposed to steep capital losses once interest rates climbed. Bianco Research founder Jim Bianco noted that starting yields have historically dictated the subsequent decade of bond performance.

The surge in fixed-income yields introduces an environment Bitcoin has rarely encountered. Launched shortly after the Federal Reserve reduced rates toward zero in late 2008, the cryptocurrency expanded primarily during an era of low rates. As the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.80% and the 30-year yield reached 5.25%, Bitcoin traded around $77,934, down roughly 2% and remaining below its 2025 peak.