Bitcoin
Bernstein Projects High Bitcoin Valuation as Prediction Markets Price Lower Range
Bernstein analysts project substantial gains for Bitcoin by year-end, contrasting with prediction market data where traders assign low odds to targets above six figures.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team at Bernstein outlined a $150,000 year-end base-case scenario for Bitcoin, with further projections reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029. With Bitcoin trading at $76,941 and 15 weeks remaining in the year, reaching the target would require a 95% increase. Bernstein bases its thesis on rising US national debt prompting currency debasement trades, alongside sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Prediction markets reflect a significantly more cautious stance. On Polymarket, where $65.88 million has been wagered on 2026 price ranges, traders price the likelihood of Bitcoin touching $150,000 at 3%, while a move to $200,000 holds a 1% probability. Higher intermediate thresholds show diminishing probabilities, including 31% for $95,000, 22% for $100,000, 12% for $110,000, and 8% for $120,000.
Polymarket contracts also assign an 89% chance of Bitcoin sliding to $75,000 and a 64% chance of reaching $70,000. Additionally, Kalshi contracts require the asset to maintain its level through the final hour of December 31, with expectations centered near $75,000.
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