Bitcoin
Spot Bitcoin Funds Outperform Futures-Based Products Over Matching Periods
Direct-holding Bitcoin funds such as IBIT have outpaced futures-based alternatives like BITO across multiple timeframes due to the ongoing costs of contract rolling.
The ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO), which launched in October 2021 as the first U.S. Bitcoin futures fund, continues to lag direct-holding funds such as the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). Over the twelve-month period ending October 7, 2026, BITO fell 35.76 percent compared to a 33.79 percent decline for IBIT, while spot Bitcoin itself declined 29.64 percent.
Performance differences extended across shorter measurement periods recorded on the same date. Year-to-date figures showed BITO declining 7.34 percent versus a 4.93 percent drop for IBIT. In a positive one-month window, BITO rose 3.88 percent while IBIT gained 4.36 percent, illustrating lower upside capture alongside larger drawdowns.
The divergence stems from the recurring cost of rolling futures contracts forward as they near expiration. When longer-dated contracts trade at higher prices than expiring ones, futures funds absorb the price difference on each roll, leading to compounding drag that does not affect spot-backed funds.
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