Bitcoin
Bitcoin traders on Kalshi assign 54% odds to $67.5K target in August
Prediction market Kalshi shows traders expect Bitcoin to reach $67,500 in August, though a key resistance level linked to recent buyer costs could pose a challenge.
Traders on the prediction market Kalshi are pricing in a 54% probability that Bitcoin will cross $67,500 by the end of August. The odds for higher targets decline steeply: a move above $70,000 carries 31% odds, while $72,500 is seen at just 13%, indicating traders anticipate recovery but not a sharp rally.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,953, with $65,500 serving as an immediate hurdle. More significantly, the cryptocurrency sits below the realized cost basis of short-term holders, estimated at around $67,523. This gap has narrowed to roughly $2,571—the tightest margin since July 21—creating a potential flashpoint where recent buyers might exit near breakeven and limit upside momentum.
ETF inflows have provided some bullish support. Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second-strongest weekly intake of the year, with approximately 11,792 BTC worth $754 million flowing into ETF wallets. Still, analyst Joao Wedson from CryptoQuant argues that Bitcoin has not yet reached the deeply undervalued levels typically associated with major market bottoms, suggesting the current move may represent a normal correction rather than a confirmed low. August has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, adding another layer of uncertainty to the month ahead.
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