JPMorgan Projects 10% Annual Return for Bitcoin but Excludes It From Core Asset Models

J.P. Morgan Asset Management's long-term outlook forecasts a 10% compound return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years alongside high volatility.

20 October 2026 · +5

In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management published its first long-term return projection for Bitcoin, estimating a 10% compound annual return over a 10 to 15-year horizon. The projection places Bitcoin above the firm's forecasts for U.S. large-cap equities at 7.5%, a traditional 60/40 portfolio at 7%, and gold at 5.5%.

The expected return is counterbalanced by an annualized volatility estimate of 55%, compared to roughly 17% for gold. Because of large price swings, Bitcoin’s arithmetic average return is estimated at 20.9%, more than double the compound figure investors would realize over time.

Due to elevated volatility and unstable correlations with other asset classes, the firm excluded Bitcoin from its primary covariance matrices used for standard portfolio modeling, opting instead for a separate, limited comparison framework. The report also dismissed the thesis that currency debasement will drive sustained capital into cryptocurrency.

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