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Ethereum Slips Toward $2,400 as Markets Await Fed Rate Decision and New Dot Plot

Ether fell over 3% amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points.

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Ethereum dropped 3.18% over the past 24 hours to trade around $2,404 ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement on September 16, 2026. Market expectations measured by the CME FedWatch tool indicate a 92% probability of a 25 basis point hike to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, marking the potential end of a five-meeting pause at 3.50%–3.75%.

The policy meeting comes shortly after the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act and follows macroeconomic pressure from energy-led inflation. August headline inflation rose 3.4% year over year, while Brent crude oil reached $108.75 amid conflict with Iran and the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.97%. A majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to raise rates and enact at least one further increase by late March.

However, institutional opinions remain divided. Standard Chartered analysts John Davies and Steve Englander suggested the central bank should hold off on rate hikes, warning that pricing pressures may be distorted by sparse incoming data. The meeting will also feature the first update to the Fed's dot plot summary since June, though policymaker Kevin Warsh previously chose not to submit his forecast.

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