Analyst says Bitcoin must confirm bottom before altcoin rally begins

A crypto analyst is cautioning against aggressive altcoin buying, arguing that historical patterns suggest investors may have more time before the next major altcoin rally begins. While many traders believe the market has bottomed, the analyst contends that Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a final low, with the risk of another 30% decline still present.

Bitcoin trades near $63,000, fluctuating between $62,000 and $65,000 while hovering at its 200-week moving average of $63,500. Although this level has historically supported bear markets, it does not guarantee a bottom. Since October 2025, Bitcoin has continued printing lower highs, keeping the broader bearish structure intact.

Historical precedent from the 2022 bear market illustrates the analyst's point. Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022 near $15,500, with most altcoins following in December. However, altcoins then spent nearly ten months consolidating before breaking higher around October 2023—after Bitcoin had already gained roughly 70% from its low. Ethereum rose about 40% during that period, while Solana moved from roughly $8 to around $20, both modest gains compared to the subsequent bull rally. The pattern suggests major altcoins spend extended periods accumulating before their strongest gains materialize, indicating little advantage to rushing in while Bitcoin is still establishing its trend.