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Markets Price 87% Probability of Federal Reserve Rate Hike at September Meeting
Interest rate futures have shifted to price an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase following slightly firmer inflation data.
Market expectations for U.S. monetary policy have shifted rapidly ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting, with rate futures now pricing an 87% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase. The benchmark target rate currently sits in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
The repricing follows August inflation figures, which showed headline CPI rising at an annual rate of 3.4% and core CPI at 2.4%. While the figures aligned with consensus forecasts, stronger core price pressures prompted economists to revise their expectations, shifting away from earlier projections that anticipated unchanged rates amid approaching midterm elections.
Economists cited in the report, including Heather Long, stated that a September increase is now near certain, representing what would be the first rate hike in three years. Former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida added that an initial hike would likely not be isolated, with market pricing now anticipating three to four total increases through mid-2027, creating potential liquidity headwinds for assets like Bitcoin.
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