JPMorgan projects 10% annualized returns for Bitcoin over the next decade

JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin in its annual long-term capital market outlook for the first time, projecting an annualized return of 10% for the cryptocurrency over the coming decade. Published in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, the forecast compares with projected returns of 7.5% for large-cap US equities and 5.5% for gold across a dataset covering more than 200 assets.

Despite the favorable return projections, the report concluded that Bitcoin is currently unsuitable as a portfolio diversifier due to unstable market correlations. JPMorgan described the asset as speculative and characterized it as a hedge against monetary easing rather than a traditional diversification tool. Under its bull scenario, Bitcoin could achieve an annualized return of 16.6%, while its bear case projects an annualized decline of 11.2%, based on metrics including supply growth relative to money supply, network adoption, and its potential role alongside gold.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the asset's inclusion in JPMorgan's long-term framework. Bitwise previously published an even more optimistic outlook in August 2025, forecasting a base-case annualized return of 28.3% and a price target of $1.3 million by 2035.