Bitcoin analyst projects bottom could arrive in two months

Bitcoin has fallen 25.98% this year after briefly exceeding $126,000 in October, stripping $665 billion from its market capitalization and pushing its valuation to $1.29 trillion. The asset climbed past $65,000 early Wednesday but analysts remain divided on what comes next.

Joao Wedson, analyst at Alphractal, contends that based on Bitcoin's historical cycle patterns, a bull market could require another two months to materialize. His reasoning draws on the asset's resilience during bear pressure: at the peak of selling pressure on day 267, Bitcoin had fallen just 53.1%, compared with average drawdowns of 85.3%, 83.4%, and 75.7% across the three previous bear markets from 2013-2022. Those cycles lasted an average of 382 days. With Bitcoin sitting 303 days past its peak, this framework suggests roughly 79 more days of decline, placing a bottom in October.

Other analysts read the market more optimistically. FrankAFetter points to Bitcoin's short-term holder profit-and-loss ratio, which has twice failed at the break-even point and driven the asset lower around $97,000 and $82,000. He expects the pattern to break this time, with short-term holders now acting as long-term buyers from the February crash, positioning for a rally that would need to clear the $82,000 resistance level.

What matters next is liquidity. Bitcoin faces a meaningful sell wall between $64,000 and $65,000, and liquidation data suggests clearing $65,000 convincingly is essential for any sustained rally to hold.