Bitcoin
Bitcoin Consolidates Around $75,900 as Market Assesses Cost Basis and Supply Resistance
Bitcoin is trading near $75,900 amid upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, sitting above realized holder costs but confronting overhead supply from recent long-term holder selling.
Bitcoin traded near $75,900 following a 4% daily drop, leaving it down 13.3% year-to-date and roughly 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Despite this decline, the asset remains about 30% above its June 30 low of $58,562. Bitcoin's realized price, representing the network's average cost basis, stands near $53,600, keeping current market prices roughly 42% above that threshold.
Macro and market structure indicators present mixed signals. Futures markets price in an 78% to 86% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike on September 16. Meanwhile, Peter Brandt's four-year cycle model indicates that a potential cycle bottom could occur around September or October 2026. Spot Bitcoin ETFs currently control approximately 6.30% of total supply, providing passive demand.
On-chain dynamics show shifting hands among major market participants. Strategy recently resumed purchases around $80,300, while long-term holders offloaded 539,000 BTC between $77,100 and $80,200. Bitcoin has failed three times to break through the $80,000 to $82,000 zone since late August, leaving a concentration of recent selling volume overhead.
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