Polymarket Probabilities for September Fed Rate Hike Climb to 83%

Prediction market odds for a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate increase have risen sharply following higher core inflation figures.

12 September 2026 · -4

Trading on prediction platform Polymarket indicates an 83% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its Sept. 15–16 meeting, compared to an 18% chance of a pause. The implied likelihood of a hike stood near 30% prior to the Jackson Hole symposium and 50% before the release of August consumer price index data.

The increase in hike expectations followed August core inflation data, which rose 0.3% month-over-month against forecasts of 0.2%, even as headline CPI matched estimates. Following the data, Barclays revised its monetary policy forecast on Aug. 31 to project consecutive quarter-point rate hikes.

Under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate upper bound at 3.75% across five consecutive meetings in 2026 after lowering it from 4.5% in September 2025. In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.95% on Sept. 10. As of Sept. 12, Bitcoin traded at $77,293.66 and XRP at $1.37.

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