Bitcoin
Bitcoin 50-week moving average reclaim could signal end of bear market
Galaxy Research analysis suggests that Bitcoin reclaiming its 50-week moving average on a weekly close could provide strong historical confirmation the bear market low is in.
Galaxy Research has examined historical Bitcoin bear markets to identify technical confirmation signals. The firm tested all completed bear markets since 2011 that met strict criteria of at least 50% drawdown lasting 90 days or more.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average in 11 of 13 completed bear markets examined, with the bear-market low arriving in all but two of those cases—both occurring during the 2021-22 cycle before Bitcoin fell to $15,758. Bitcoin currently trades at $78,114, with the 50-week moving average sitting at $82,470, roughly 6.4% overhead.
The faster 50-day moving average proved far less reliable, with 43 of 106 reclaims failing to hold and leading to new lows instead. Galaxy Research noted that a weekly close above the 50-week average could provide strong historical confirmation that the current cycle low is in, though the daily reclaim alone remains encouraging but not conclusive. The analysis added that even successful 50-week signals can experience whipsaws, yet Bitcoin never printed a new bear-market low after those events occurred.
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