Bitcoin Demand Recovers, But Spot Trading Strength Remains Uncertain

Thirty-day demand for Bitcoin has swung positive near 25,000 BTC, reversing from deeply negative readings recorded around June following the recent price decline. The turnaround suggests capital is flowing back into the market, though demand levels still lag prior recovery periods.

Derivatives markets are currently driving much of the momentum, with futures traders rebuilding leveraged positions as prices improve. Historically, such moves have become more durable when spot buying increases in tandem with futures activity. Without concurrent strength in both markets, the article notes, derivative-led rallies tend to inflate prices temporarily before reversing.

Bitcoin currently trades near $65,000, approaching a resistance zone between $65,000 and $67,000 that reflects the cost basis of recent buyers. That level aligns with the 1–3 month realized price around $67,000. The 3–6 month cohort sits near $72,000, presenting another overhead hurdle. For a sustainable recovery to develop, new spot buyers must absorb this accumulated selling pressure. ETF inflows of $763 million and accumulation by long-term holders provide some support, though the long-term holder SOPR metric remains below 1, indicating recent entrants could sell near breakeven and add supply around $67,000–$67,500.

Major holders can also influence the supply picture. Marathon Digital Holdings is pledging 18,750 BTC, worth approximately $1.2 billion, to raise $600 million through borrowing rather than spot market sales. This approach keeps those coins off the market, a shift from the company's H1 2026 activity when it sold 23,093 BTC.