Goldman Sachs Adjusts Fed Outlook Toward Potential October Rate Increase

Goldman Sachs updated its monetary policy forecast on September 16, 2026, anticipating a 25-basis-point interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve's October meeting. The shift came less than 24 hours after the investment bank initially told clients that a follow-up hike following the September decision was not its baseline expectation.

The revised outlook followed the Federal Open Market Committee's unanimous 12-0 vote to lift the target policy range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, representing its first rate hike since 2023. Updated dot-plot projections revealed that 16 of 18 policymakers anticipated at least one further increase before year-end, with four members penciling in two additional hikes alongside higher inflation projections.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the restrictive tone in post-meeting remarks, noting that policy accommodation had been reduced while financial conditions remained difficult to classify as tight. Analysts cited by the report noted that while the September rate hike had been largely priced into Bitcoin and broader digital asset markets, an unpriced October hike could alter market liquidity expectations.