Bitcoin
Crypto and Macro Weekly Recap Highlights Inflation Data and Protocol Exploit
Macroeconomic rate pressures from the Fed and ECB coincided with market consolidation and a major security exploit on the Liquid Network.
Bitcoin remained constrained below $78,000 amid macroeconomic tightening and options positioning. Deribit options data for the September 11 expiry showed a maximum pain level of $78,000 across $2.23 billion in notional value, with heavy put concentration below $76,000 and calls clustered at $81,000.
Central bank policy developments drove market expectations as US core inflation rose 0.3% in August, lifting the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16 to 85.4%. In Europe, the European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing its deposit facility rate to 2.50%, while French government projections showed rising debt interest obligations reaching €59.3 billion for 2026.
In protocol developments, the Liquid Network experienced a vulnerability in the Elements software cache on September 6, allowing an attacker to mint roughly 4,000 synthetic Bitcoin valued at $320 million. The attacker subsequently returned 3,400 Bitcoin following a software patch, while keeping 598.5 Bitcoin and demanding a 10% fee from Blockstream.
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