XRP
XRP consolidates at $1 support as Polymarket assigns 65% crash odds
Ripple's $1 support is under pressure as prediction markets price in heavy downside risk, while technical divergence against Ethereum complicates the near-term outlook.
Polymarket has assigned a 65% probability to XRP falling below $1, triggering debate over the legitimacy of the bearish forecast. The token has spent nearly two months consolidating around the $1 level, closing July at $1.06 and holding support into August — a pattern that has historically preceded bullish rebounds.
However, relative performance tells a different story. XRP's ratio against Ethereum has fallen nearly 5% in August, extending July's 13% decline and marking the ratio's worst monthly performance so far this year. In July alone, Ethereum gained over 18% while XRP rose just 2.18%, putting ETH's monthly return nearly 10 times ahead. With Bitcoin still hovering near resistance, rotational flows into stronger performers could intensify this divergence.
On-chain leverage is building pressure on support. According to CoinGlass, XRP's open interest has climbed back to $2.5 billion, near mid-July levels when bulls failed to hold $1.15 and triggered a liquidity sweep that sent the token to $1.03. If bulls fail at support again, another sharp correction could follow.
On the fundamental side, XRP's deflationary tokenomics present a counterpoint. The token has burned approximately 95,506 XRP over the past 206 days — roughly 463 per day — reducing total supply from 99,985,726,061 to 99,985,630,555. These mechanics are cited by analysts as a structural strength relative to other major layer-one blockchains.
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