Bitcoin
China Credit Impulse Decelerates as Bitcoin Market Shows Resilience
China's credit growth has slowed, a macro indicator that previously preceded risk-asset pullbacks, though Bitcoin has shown minimal sensitivity.
China's credit impulse has shifted downward, according to economic data derived from the People's Bank of China's Total Social Financing metrics. While total outstanding financing exceeds 400 trillion yuan (roughly $60 trillion), the credit impulse indicator—which measures the 12-month change in the flow of new credit relative to GDP—points to a slowing pace of new credit creation.
Historically, decelerating credit impulse in China preceded downturns in global risk assets by six to nine months, as seen in cycles such as 2009, 2016, 2018, and 2021. However, the current slowdown has not triggered a corresponding decline in Bitcoin prices.
The analysis attributes this divergence to structural changes in crypto market participation since China banned domestic cryptocurrency trading and mining in 2021. The marginal buyer of Bitcoin has largely shifted toward U.S. institutional channels, including spot exchange-traded funds, corporate balance sheets, and dollar liquidity.
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