Analyst Points to Macro Signals Marking the End of Bitcoin's Bear Market

Technical analyst Eric Crown indicated that Bitcoin's bear market has ended after the asset closed August at $78,581 on Binance. Crown had previously set a monthly close threshold of $65,708 to confirm a macro reversal, a level required to push the monthly stochastic oscillator out of its bearish territory for the first time since January 2023. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading near $77,341, down 1.9% over a 24-hour period.

Crown noted that his broader macro framework—incorporating momentum extremes, volatility, sentiment metrics, seasonality, and drawdowns from previous highs—had earlier flashed reversal signals in the low $60,000 range. He framed his analysis in terms of probabilities rather than certainty, stating that the likelihood of upward movement currently outweighs further downside. Other market figures, including Strive chief executive Matt Cole and large holders who accumulated across the summer, also pointed to a market bottom.

Regarding historical performance, Crown pushed back against the view that September regularly brings steep market drops, describing it as a directionless period rather than a crash phase. While September ranks as Bitcoin's third-worst month by median returns, Crown noted that removing bear market years such as 2011 and 2014 leaves an average loss of 0.1%, with the last three Septembers each finishing with gains between 4% and 7.4%.