Bitcoin
Theoretical Quantum Computing Threshold to Break Bitcoin Cryptography Falls to 813 Qubits
New computational optimizations have reduced the theoretical quantum capacity required to breach Bitcoin's cryptographic curve to 813 logical qubits.
The theoretical threshold of logical qubits required to compromise the secp256k1 elliptic curve used by Bitcoin and Ethereum has fallen to 813, according to tracking on the ecdsa.fail leaderboard. This represents a 65% reduction from the 2,330 logical qubits estimated in 2017, and follows a revision to roughly 1,200 qubits published by Google Quantum AI in March.
The benchmark is tracked through an open competition hosted by Eigen Labs, where researchers and artificial intelligence models optimize quantum circuits against a qubit-Toffoli metric to reduce the computational cost of attacking cryptographic keys.
Current hardware remains well below this theoretical threshold. Google's Willow processor currently operates at 105 logical qubits, while hardware developer QuEra aims to reach approximately 1,000 logical qubits by 2029. While the security margin persists, the article notes that rising hardware capabilities and decreasing theoretical thresholds are steadily narrowing the gap.
In response to these developments, USDC issuer Circle launched the Quantum Tracker in late August to monitor verified laboratory qubits against cryptographic attack requirements. Circle's Arc network has also integrated NIST-approved post-quantum signature schemes, such as SLH-DSA, alongside standard ECDSA cryptography.
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