Bitcoin
October Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 44% Following Comments by New York Fed President
Market expectations for an October interest rate increase declined after Federal Reserve official John Williams urged patience, though diverging viewpoints remain among policymakers.
Futures market expectations for an October interest rate increase declined from roughly 70% to 44.8% on the CME FedWatch Tool after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams stated that policymakers have time to evaluate incoming data. Speaking at the University at Buffalo, Williams noted that the September rate increase to the 3.75%–4% range removed urgency for an immediate follow-up move, while prediction market Kalshi saw odds for unchanged rates rise to 55.2%.
Perspectives within the central bank remain divided. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr indicated that an October rate increase remains on the table, pointing to persistent demand tied to artificial intelligence and higher oil prices as potential disruptions to the policy path. Williams stated that while an immediate move may not be necessary, another hike could occur later in the year, with inflation projected to reach 3.5% by the end of 2026.
The policy debate coincided with steady digital asset markets, where aggregate capitalization stood at $2.95 trillion. Bitcoin represented $1.67 trillion of the total with a 56.62% market share, trading below $83,213 as approximately 13,800 BTC moved off Binance in its largest single-day net outflow since 2023.
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