Bitcoin
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Recede as Bitcoin Rallies Past $80,000
Shifting interest rate projections and easing geopolitical concerns accompanied Bitcoin's climb above $80,000.
Market probabilities for a September Federal Reserve rate hike dropped back to roughly 50% on Friday, down from 70% the previous day and up from 37% a week earlier. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders evenly split between the central bank holding the benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% or implementing a 25-basis-point increase to 3.75% to 4.00%.
Expectations for subsequent monetary tightening have also been delayed, with pricing for an additional increase to 4.00% to 4.25% pushed from December 2026 into March 2027. Rate expectations have fluctuated alongside oil prices and bond yields influenced by the Iran conflict, while central bank officials remain divided on future policy steps following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at Jackson Hole.
In tandem with the easing rate outlook and discussions surrounding an end to the Iran conflict, Bitcoin moved past $80,000 to trade near $81,000, registering a 24-hour increase of approximately 5%. The article notes that reduced rate hike probabilities have alleviated pressure on Treasury yields and the US dollar, though upcoming inflation data and geopolitical developments remain key variables.
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