Bitcoin
Study Evaluates Twelve-Month Dollar-Cost Averaging Returns in Bitcoin
An analysis of monthly Bitcoin purchases over a one-year period examines the mathematical effects of regular instalment investing.
A study by cryptoticker.io analysed the mechanics of dollar-cost averaging by simulating twelve monthly purchases of 100 euros into Bitcoin between October 1, 2025, and September 1, 2026. Based on daily price data from CoinGecko, the total 1,200-euro investment was valued against a Bitcoin price of 70,536.29 euros on September 19, 2026.
The simulation found that the recurring instalment approach achieved an average purchase price 3.67% lower than the simple arithmetic mean of prices over the period. Additionally, the strategy outperformed a single lump-sum purchase made on the start date by 33.6 percentage points, primarily because the asset declined by over a third from its peak during the measured timeframe.
The analysis noted that dollar-cost averaging does not eliminate market risk or guarantee profit, as portfolio value still declines during sustained downturns. It also pointed out that the calculations excluded transaction fees, trading spreads, and intra-day execution timing.
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