Bitcoin
Bitcoin Faces Pressure from Fed Rate Hike Expectations as Regulatory Focus Shifts to Treasury
High expectations of an interest rate increase weigh on Bitcoin while industry observers point to the growing influence of the US Treasury over digital asset policy.
Bitcoin traded near $77,250 ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 16 rate decision, with futures markets pricing an 86.5% chance of a quarter-point rate hike. The shift followed an August inflation report showing consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month to reach an annual rate of 3.4%, alongside dissents from three committee officials who favored an increase in July.
Attention has also centered on Treasury operations at the long end of the bond market. Following twenty-year highs in long-term yields, the Treasury initiated a buyback program running from September 9 to November 4, providing $4 billion per operation from the Treasury General Account. UBS analysts noted that market conditions are increasingly dictated by these bond market dynamics rather than central bank policy alone.
Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long indicated that regulatory authority over digital assets is also shifting toward the Treasury. Under the GENIUS Act, scheduled to take effect in January 2027, the Treasury and the OCC have already issued proposed frameworks for dollar-pegged stablecoins and asserted jurisdiction over foreign offerings, while the Fed has yet to publish proposed rules.
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