Bitcoin
ETH/BTC rallies 10% in July: Is Ethereum repeating 2025 playbook
Ethereum's outperformance against Bitcoin in Q3 echoes a pattern from last year, with capital rotation accelerated by tightening exchange supply.
The total crypto market cap has gained over 6% in Q3, putting it on track for its first bullish quarterly close since Q3 2025. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed over 10% in the quarter, tracking toward its strongest performance since a 56% rally in Q3 2025. Ethereum surged 18.55% in July alone, more than double Bitcoin's return.
The rotation appears structural rather than cyclical. ETH dominance closed July up over 11%, indicating that Ethereum is gaining share of the total crypto market rather than simply capturing short-term capital flows. Ethereum's exchange supply ratio has dropped to 0.127, marking the lowest level on record, while institutional demand is rising. This combination of declining liquid supply and increased institutional interest suggests conditions may favour sustained outperformance.
Historically, capital rotates from Bitcoin into Ethereum as investors move further out the risk curve. In Q3 2025, Ethereum closed up 66.55%, marking its strongest quarterly rally on record, driven by a 48% July surge and an 18% August gain. Bitcoin returned just 6.31% over the same period. The ETH/BTC pair gained 56%, suggesting nearly 84% of Ethereum's Q3 gains came from capital rotating out of Bitcoin.
One caveat remains: Bitcoin dominance has yet to reclaim the 60% level. Unless BTC.D breaks above that resistance, calling for a sustained rally through the rest of Q3 may be premature, particularly given Bitcoin's historical underperformance in August and September.
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