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Analysis Highlights Supply Disparity Behind Long-Term XRP Valuation Models

Projections exploring high XRP price targets must account for the substantial gap between the token's circulating supply and its total reserve held by Ripple.

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Market discussions around hypothetical targets such as a $10 XRP valuation face significant divergence depending on whether calculations use circulating or total supply figures. At $1.40 on October 12, 2026, XRP traded down 6.55% on the week and 23.38% year-to-date, though it remained up 39.71% from its 60-day low of $1.01.

At current levels, XRP's circulating supply of roughly 63.1 billion tokens corresponds to a market capitalization of $88.5 billion. However, factoring in the total supply of approximately 99.99 billion tokens—capped at 100 billion, with most locked tokens held by Ripple—brings its fully diluted valuation to around $140.2 billion.

Under a $10 price scenario, XRP's circulating market cap would reach approximately $631.3 billion. When applied to the entire existing supply, the fully diluted value would approach $1 trillion, representing roughly 60% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.

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