Bitcoin rally fails to sway skeptical prediction market traders

Bitcoin rose 3.26% to $71,556 on Thursday as bulls attempt to break a months-long bearish trend. Yesterday's move marked the strongest one-day jump since March 4, with the token reaching its highest price since June 1.

The rally has shifted sentiment on prediction markets, though not uniformly. On Myriad, traders had leaned 70% toward a drop to $55,000 just days ago, but by Wednesday afternoon the odds flipped to roughly even money: 52% bullish on $84,000 versus 48% bearish on $55,000. Other platforms show varied readings. Polymarket's 2026 contract was pricing a 56% probability that Bitcoin touches $55,000 before year-end as of last week, with just 51% odds on a run to $75,000. On Kalshi, traders gave Bitcoin only a 54% chance of clearing $67,500 in August and 31% at $70,000—both levels the rally breached on Wednesday.

The article notes that near-term markets tightened while year-end contracts barely moved, suggesting the Myriad swing reflects traders who were caught off guard rather than a genuine longer-term forecast reversal. Technical resistance sits at $70,284; a close above that opens toward $73,245, while a drop below $68,000 would push Bitcoin back into the range that has confined it since June and preceded previous crashes.

Myriad's contract remains live until either $84,000 or $55,000 is touched on Binance's BTC/USDT spot price, currently showing 52% odds on the bullish outcome despite the rally's intensity.