Bitcoin
Bitcoin Midterm Year Performance and Four-Year Cycle Trends
Historical data from Binance Research highlights Bitcoin's past declines during U.S. midterm election years alongside its broader four-year halving cycle.
According to research from Binance Research, Bitcoin has recorded steep calendar-year losses during each of the past three U.S. midterm election years, falling 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. However, the cryptocurrency rebounded in the subsequent years, posting an average gain of 54%. By comparison, the S&P 500 has averaged a 19% gain in the 12 months following midterm elections and has not experienced a negative post-midterm year since 1939.
The piece notes that Bitcoin's sample size remains limited across its history, with the asset still in its infancy during the 2010 midterms when it traded between fractions of a cent and 30 cents. The recurring weakness during midterm years coincides with Bitcoin's typical four-year halving cycle, where midterms align with downturns following cycle peaks, indicating the trend may reflect the broader halving cycle rather than political events.
In 2026, Bitcoin has diverged from past midterm drops. As of October 5, the digital asset traded at $86,189—roughly 32% below its record high of $126,080—representing a decline of only about 3% year-to-date ahead of the November 3, 2026 elections.
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