Analysis Questions Whether Bitcoin July Low Marked Definite Cycle Bottom

Bitcoin has rebounded by more than 40% from its July low of $57,000, touching an eight-month high of $87,000 toward the end of September. While the recovery has fueled bullish sentiment among traders anticipating a push toward six figures, data from Glassnode suggests the market may not have reached a definitive cycle floor.

According to the analytics firm, Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its cycle high, representing a relatively shallow drawdown compared to past bear markets in 2013, 2017, and 2021, which experienced drops exceeding 80%. Historical four-year cycle patterns indicate that previous bottoms occurred 365 to 406 days after cycle peaks, implying that a potential low could fall between early October and mid-November.

Broader macroeconomic conditions may also exert pressure on risk assets. Recent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran contributed to major market sell-offs, with U.S. Treasury yields climbing above 5% and crude oil approaching $90 per barrel, presenting potential headwinds for digital asset markets.