Bitcoin
Bitcoin shows multiple market-bottom indicators, analysts report
Three independent signals have converged on Bitcoin, including a capital flow divergence previously seen near the 2022 cycle bottom, according to on-chain data.
Bitcoin is displaying several patterns typically associated with major market turning points, combining weakened capital flows, subdued futures returns, and proximity to its 200-week moving average.
Ali Charts identified a bullish divergence between Bitcoin's price and net capital flows—the same pattern that emerged near the 2022 cycle low, when Bitcoin traded near $15,000 before advancing approximately eightfold. A bullish divergence occurs when price remains depressed while underlying flow indicators improve, suggesting selling pressure and capital movement have decoupled.
Derivatives data adds to the comparison. Rand Group cited Glassnode research showing that Bitcoin's three-month annualized futures basis has remained below the two-year US Treasury yield for 157 consecutive days. The futures basis measures the premium available when contracts trade above spot price; a lower basis typically reflects weaker demand for leveraged bullish positions. When this basis falls below government bond yields, institutional traders have reduced financial incentive to allocate capital to crypto futures.
According to Glassnode, the current 157-day period is the second-longest on record, second only to a roughly 160-day stretch between August 2022 and January 2023—a period that coincided with Bitcoin's cycle-low formation. Analysts caution that these signals do not by themselves establish a confirmed bottom.
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